Scientists at the Mayo Clinic have developed an innovative tool that can assess the risk of developing memory problems associated with Alzheimer’s years before symptoms appear.
The study, which was published in The Lancet Neurology, draws upon data from the Mayo Clinic Study of Aging. This is one of the world’s most comprehensive investigations into brain health.
The research showed that women have a higher risk than men of developing dementia or Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI). Mild Cognitive Impairment is a transitional stage that stands between healthy aging and dementia.

Men and women who have the genetic variant APOE4 are also at this risk. The APOE gene, which codes for the protein Apolipoprotein E and is involved in the transport of fats and, consequently, cholesterol in the brain, is vitally important for neurons.
Compared to the normal APOE3 variant of the APOE gene, the APOE4 variant is the strongest genetic risk factor for Alzheimer’s, increasing the risk of developing the disease by 2 to 3 times with one copy, and by up to 12 times with two copies. This gene variant promotes the accumulation of amyloid plaques in the brain.
The new model for predicting Alzheimer’s combines several factors: age, sex, genetic risk, and the level of amyloid in the brain (via PET scan), to calculate the probability of developing Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI) or dementia over the next 10 years or across a lifetime.
This type of Alzheimer’s risk assessment will, in the future, help patients and their doctors decide on initiating therapy or making lifestyle changes that could potentially delay the onset of symptoms. This approach is similar to how cholesterol levels are used to predict the risk of a heart attack.
The uniqueness of the study lies in the fact that it relies on data from the Mayo Clinic Study of Aging, which has monitored thousands of individuals. Although the new tool is currently used for research purposes, it is a significant step toward more personalized treatment. Future versions may also include blood test-based biomarkers.

